As the excitement builds about the Fringe programme launch on Thursday this week, I'd like to let you into a little secret.  Sure, I'll be getting the programme, and I'll be poring over it and making my first choices for this year.  But the truth is that I've never actually booked a Fringe ticket before the Festival actually started.  And what's more - despite that laziness - in ten years of regular Fringe-going, I've never found myself unable get a ticket for a show I really wanted to see.

A glance at the statistics tells you why.  2006 was the best year yet for early Fringe ticket sales, with a whopping 56,000 shifting in the first week the box office was open.  But that's still less than 4% of the incredible 1.5 million tickets they flog annually - and an even smaller proportion of the number of seats available to sell if they can.  Despite all those performers who plaster the Fringe programme with phrases like "TOTAL SELL-OUT SINCE 2002", the reality is that few shows book out even days in advance, let alone back in June.

There are real disadvantages, as well, of booking too early: all you have to go on at this stage is the 40-word write-up each show is allowed in the Festival programme.  You won't have seen the more detailed venue programmes yet, and you certainly won't have had a chance to see any reviews.  That's OK if you're sure you know what you're getting... but if you're in any doubt about a show, I say, why make yourself the guinea-pig?  You only need to hold your nerve a little, and someone else will check it out for you.

Now I do have to admit my position isn't entirely typical.  Firstly, it's my great good fortune to be in Edinburgh for the whole of the Fringe: if I want to see a popular act I can pitch up on (let's say) a dull mid-Festival Tuesday, when tickets are hardly at a premium.  Secondly, I'm not really one for seeing big names off the television, which are the shows that usually sell out first.  My point remains, though; it's entirely possible to have a fantastic Fringe experience without booking a single ticket before you leave home.

So what does it all add up to?  Well, if there's a particular face off the telly you're keen to see, don't let me put you off booking: that show will sell out, and if you're certain about it there's no harm in sorting yourself out early.  And if you're going to see your friend, grandson or neighbour performing on the stage, get in there - they'll appreciate the early ticket sales.

But that tempting modern version of Macbeth by a group you've never heard of, which sounds great in the programme but you can't quite be sure?  Of course, keep an eye on it, but don't rush to judgement.  A hundred to one says it will still be there in August.

Richard Stamp is FringeGuru's founder and a self-confessed Festival nut.  He denies sleeping with the Fringe programme under his pillow.